It is perfectly true that afterwards the ship sank; but it is far more extraordinary that the ship came up again: repainted and glittering, with the cross still at the top. This is the amazing thing the religion did: it turned a sunken ship into a submarine. The ark lived under the load of waters; after being buried under the debris of dynasties and clans, we arose and remembered Rome (Orthodoxy by Gilbert K. Chesterton IX, Authority and the Adventurer).

Of the many things that will in memoriam mark the United States toward the close of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st Century, is certainly the decline of religion (in general) and Catholicism (in particular). As Pew Research recently wrote:

By comparison, there are far fewer converts to Catholicism; 2% of all U.S. adults now identify as Catholics after having been raised in another religion or without a religion. This means that there are more than six former Catholics for every convert to Catholicism. No other religious group analyzed in the survey has experienced anything close to this ratio of losses to gains via religious switching (Religious Switching and Intermarriage, 2015).

However, this was not always the case, and it may not necessarily be the case in years to come. 

However, before we look into the possible future of Catholicism in America, let us recall its very recent past: where we have come from and where we might be going in America.

In the beginning…

According to Stephen Bullivant, in his research on Catholic disaffiliation (cf. Mass Exodus: Catholic Disaffiliation in Britain and America since Vatican II), the years immediately following the conclusion of World War II, yet before the end of the Second Vatican Council were one of a Christian springtime in the West.

In his words:

In both Britain and America, the decade-and-a-half following the Second World War has typically been viewed as an era of Christian vitality, with Catholics taking (more than) their fair share of the spoils. It is not hard to see why (Ibid, The Post War Boom).

Bullivant defends his statement “not hard to see why” by noting the Catholic Church’s “unimpeachable” credentials in the “all-out battle between Communistic atheism and Christianity,” which gave Catholicism the perception of patriotism, the stream of Catholic hit-movies like “The Song of Bernadette,” “The Bells of St. Mary’s;” the award-winning televised preaching of the Venerable Fulton J Sheen, along with the ordinary and faithful work of Catholic schools and parishes.

Moreover, on the other side of the Atlantic a similar springtime was underway. Bullivant writes, regarding England:

In 1959, some 16,000 were received into the Church, up from under 10,000 in 1945 (Ibid).

Further, as a British report wrote of Catholics in 1967:

…with the birth rate and conversions it seems to me that we’ll all be Catholics in thirty or forty years’ time! (The R.C.s: A Report on Catholics in Britain Today, 1967).

Time would prove this prophecy false. 

However, since the reason for its failure is connected with Catholic’s success in the 1950s & ’60s; it is worth citing two additional reasons for Catholic success in this time period, according to Bullivant:

Thinking social-scientifically, two major facets of post-war Catholic life, both firmly established in Britain and America (even if with a good deal of local variation), stand out. These are (i) the close-knit community life of Catholic parishes, and (ii) the richly elaborate devotional life that these fostered (Ibid).

As a concrete statistic of the first point, he writes:

Concentrating solely on the more-or-less downtown area of the City itself (i.e., Philadelphia County), I count ninety-seven separate parish territories. This is in a total area of just 143 square miles, slightly smaller than the Isle of Wight (Ibid, Parochial Concerns).

Unfortunately, both close-knit community life and a richly elaborate devotional life would greatly dissipate in the years following the Council. However, in order to understand why their disappearance had such a tremendous impact on Catholics, merits a brief digression.

Israel in Egypt

Analogous to the Catholic springtime experience in England and America in the mid-20th century, was the prosperity of the Sons of Israel upon their entrance into Egypt. 

The analogy is particularly apt because of the large numbers of Catholic immigrants, which poured into America and England, post-war. Bullivant notes:

Large numbers of immigrants certainly helped fuel impressive Catholic growth in this period (Field 2015: 27–9). These were above all Irish, but also included Poles, Ukrainians, and Lithuanians under the post-war European Voluntary Worker scheme, and many others besides, often forming significant local pockets (cf. Harris 2013a: 35) (Ibid., Post War Boom).

And going back to Philadelphia County, notice how many of its total churches are ethnic-specific:

Astonishingly, the map identifies a further fifty-one Catholic churches or chapels…These include Italian (13), German (9), Polish (9), Lithuanian (4), Slovak (2), African American (4), Spanish (1), Hungarian (1), Armenian (1), Maronite (1), and Chinese (1) (Ibid., Parochial Concerns).

Analogous to this migration and religious flourishing, was the growth of the Sons of Israel upon their entrance into Egypt at the end of the Book of Genesis.

The first chapter of Exodus sums this up well, stating:

But the people of Israel were fruitful and increased greatly; they multiplied and grew exceedingly strong, so that the land was filled with them (Gen. 1:7).

As they grew, the sons of Israel, would certainly face significant adversity.

However, more devastating than the persecution they faced without was the struggle they faced within: the battle in their hearts against idolatry.

In Scott Hahn’s words:

…Ezekiel 20 tells us, Israel had been in Egypt so long that it had already begun to absorb the Egyptians’ idolatrous ways, a religion of nature, fertility, power, and wealth (A Father who Keeps His Promises, Ch. 6). 

Here is the precise account from Ezekiel:

But they rebelled against me and would not listen to me; they did not every man cast away the detestable things their eyes feasted on, nor did they forsake the idols of Egypt. “Then I thought I would pour out my wrath upon them and spend my anger against them in the midst of the land of Egypt (Ez. 20:8-9).

The erosion of the Faith of Abraham in the Sons of Israel, is also demonstrated by the strange event between Moses, Zipporah, and God in the fourth chapter of Exodus, which reads:

At a lodging place on the way the Lord met him (Moses) and sought to kill him. Then Zippo′rah took a flint and cut off her son’s foreskin, and touched Moses’ feet with it, and said, “Surely you are a bridegroom of blood to me!” So he let him alone (Ex. 4:24-26).

What’s at issue here is that Moses had not circumcised his son, which is a violation of the Abrahamic Covenant, and therefore justly incured the wrath of God. 

However, take a moment and imagine what condition the religion of Israel must have been like, for the leader of their nation to have plainly disregarded the most fundamental rite or obligation of their religion.

In brief, as the people of Israel grew and intermingled with the natives of Egypt, so too did their religion dissipate, and so also did the religion of Catholics in America in the decades following the conclusion of the Council. 

The predominant cause (of which, in my opinion) was the loss of those last two mentioned factors of Catholic success: a tight-knit community and a rich devotional life. 

The loss of the first came from a growing middle class which allowed generations following migrant workers to move out into suburbia.

There, they would no longer be surrounded by a Catholic and ethnically-identical village, but by a majority Protestant country.

When it comes to the second factor, a rich devotional life, it may be helpful to describe, why it was so important to possess in the first place.

Looked at from a merely sociological perspective, devotional practices very clearly distinguished Catholics (in their own mind) from the “world;” and through regular and religious practices that the “world” does not do, like praying the rosary nightly with the family, late-night Eucharistic Adoration, and celebrations on particular saints’ feast days. 

Devotional practices also provided a clear witness from parents to their children of time and energy devoted to the faith, over and beyond the laws of the Church.

But what was the cause of a decrease in devotional life following the Council? 

It may well have been through misguided efforts to implement Sacrosanctum Concilium from the Second Vatican Council, which, although explicitly affirming that “popular devotions are to be highly commended,” also said:

But these devotions should be so drawn up that they harmonize with the liturgical seasons, accord with the sacred liturgy, are in some fashion derived from it, and lead the people to it, since, in fact, the liturgy by its very nature far surpasses any of them (#13).

Later, in regard to images, it would speak even more firmly (in regard to the construction of churches), stating:

The practice of placing sacred images in churches so that they may be venerated by the faithful is to be maintained. Nevertheless their number should be moderate and their relative positions should reflect right order. For otherwise they may create confusion among the Christian people and foster devotion of doubtful orthodoxy (Ibid., #125)

Neither texts, quoted above, from the Council is alarming in itself, but may have been used to justify the stripping of churches and devotional life in the 60’s and 70’s.

The Conformity Conundrum

Therefore, living as a Catholic in a non-Catholic world, with less to distinguish oneself from that world (the devotional life, latin liturgy, abstinence on Fridays), many Catholics’s faith would not survive the transition; and statistically speaking, Mass attendance (according to Bullivant) has declined in America and England ever since. 

Yet, we ought to wonder, why was it that Catholics conformed to non-Catholics instead of the other way around? After all, Catholics are called to be salt and light in the world.

The truth is that Catholics, in a Protestant nation, (like Israel in Egypt) were the dissenting opinion on religion, and as Solomon Asch showed in his famous sociological “line experiments” it is often the majority’s opinion that people conform to.

How Solomon Asch discovered that, is of interest, and can be summarized this way:

In the 1950s, he conducted “line experiments” by showing a room full of participants three lines: a tallest, shortest, and middle-length line. 

Then, he showed another line and asked the room of participants which of the first three lines was equal in length.

It is clearly equal to the middle-length line, but in this room, 90% of the “participants” are actors who are told to choose the wrong line publicly, and they do. And 75% of the time, the one real “participant” in the study who answers last simply goes with everyone else’s answer even though their answer is obviously wrong.

For our purposes here, the study proves that, in the vast majority of cases, we simply lack the strength to withstand peer pressure. 

And according to Bullivant & Pew Research many Catholics did not, in fact, withstand the pressure to conform.

Moreover, Pope Benedict XVI, when asked to explain a “certain quiet attrition” by which Catholics were abandoning the practice of the faith, seemed to have this in mind, replying:

Certainly, much of this has to do with the passing away of a religious culture, sometimes disparagingly referred to as a “ghetto”, which reinforced participation and identification with the Church (Responses of his holiness benedict XVI to the questions posed by the Bishops).

Yet, even with these factors, we must ask why didn’t our parishes simply go looking for their lost parishioners?

Why wasn’t a rescue team sent out to look for them? 

Religious Indifference

Even if droves of Catholics were suddenly disavowing their faith for something more culturally acceptable, like Protestantism, we are still right to wonder why our parishes’ evangelization efforts did not push back against the tide.

For example, if we consider St. Patrick upon his arrival in Ireland, or the Apostles in Ancient Rome, surely the majority was against them also, but still could not prevent nationwide conversions to the Catholic faith.

Therefore, why not at this same time, as Catholic numbers were decreasing, were not the remaining Catholics going looking for them?

Also, why in this same period, was there a statistical decline, not only of Catholicism but also Traditional and Evangelical Protestantism?

The answer to that question is concisely stated in the Newsweek Article titled: US Views on God and Life Are Turning Hindu.

We Are All Hindus

The question we are currently asking is where were the Catholic evangelical efforts to reverse the tide of disaffiliation in the late 20th and early 21st Century?

For Catholics who know and understand the Vatican II Council Documents, one might point to the immediate confusion that ensued surrounding Lumen Gentium as well as Nostra Aetate’s seemingly optimism regarding non-Christian religions.

But this wouldn’t explain the decline of other organized Christian religions in America, which also have significantly declined over this same period. 

It is my opinion that (wherever it might have originally come from) a spirit of religious indifference took hold in American culture and took “the fight” out of its evangelists (especially the Catholic ones).

Here was Lisa Miller’s assessment in the above mentioned article published in 2009:

Recent poll data show that conceptually, at least, we are slowly becoming more like Hindus and less like traditional Christians in the ways we think about God, ourselves, each other, and eternity.

The Rig Veda, the most ancient Hindu scripture, says this: “Truth is One, but the sages speak of it by many names.” A Hindu believes there are many paths to God… 

Jesus said, “I am the way, the truth, and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me.”

Americans are no longer buying it. According to a 2008 Pew Forum survey, 65 percent of us believe that “many religions can lead to eternal life”—including 37 percent of white evangelicals, the group most likely to believe that salvation is theirs alone. 

Evangelization is hard; it is uncomfortable; it is self-sacrificial. 

But if everyone can get to heaven, their own way, by being “a good person” and generating good “karma” as they go, then why should we evangelize them?

In a way, if Hinduism is true, it’s actually worse for them to become Catholic. 

It’s worse because if all religions equally lead to salvation, the Catholic road is by far not the easiest one.

Jesus said, “If any man would come after me, let him deny himself and take up his cross and follow me” (Mt. 16:24), and He meant it.

Catholicism is meant to be, in some ways, a living crucifixion and death to the world, something we would not wish on “nice” people if they are going to go to heaven anyways.

In contrast with Hinduism, or religious indifference, listen to the heart of a true Catholic evangelist. Here was the prayer of St. Francis Xavier, the Patron of Missions:

Eternal God, the Maker of all things, remember that the souls of unbelievers have been created by Thee, and that they have been made after thy own image and likeness. Behold, O Lord, to thy dishonour, with these very souls hell is filled.

Remember, O God, that for their salvation thy Son Jesus Christ underwent a most cruel death. O Lord suffer not that thy Son be despised by unbelievers; but, appeased by the prayers of holy men and of the Church, the Spouse of thy most holy Son, remember thy own pity, and, forgetting their idolatry and their unbelief, bring to pass that they may at length acknowledge thy Son Jesus Christ who is our salvation, life, and resurrection, through whom we are saved and set free; to whom be glory from age to age without end. Amen.

Such is the heart of an evangelist, which an atmosphere of religious indifference in the middle of the 20th Century was greatly removed from the hearts of Catholics in America. Moreover, without a “search and rescue” team interested in going after the fallen-away Catholics, the Catholic rates of disaffiliation continued to increase unabated.

But here is the good news: things may be changing.

The Comeback 

This is the amazing thing the religion did: it turned a sunken ship into a submarine (Chesterton).

Shockingly, Catholicism seems to be making a comeback.

And we are seeing it first in European countries like France and Belgium, which are both currently experiencing explosive growth in Catholics.

Here are the stats, from the Pillar:

The number of adult baptisms in France has increased by 30%, from 5,463 in 2023 to 7,135 in 2024, the French bishops’ conference reported March 27 (Adult baptisms ‘boom’ in France and Belgium).

And in regards to Belgium, it reported:

The number of adult baptisms has also continued to rise over the border in Belgium, almost doubling in a decade, from 186 in 2014 to 362 in 2024, the Belgian bishops’ conference announced March 26 (Ibid).

In the United States, Catholicism is holding the line at 20% of the population, which has dropped fairly consistently from 24% of the population. 

However, we are right to expect revival because:

1. The loss of the Catholic community (physically), which was so vital to its survival in the United States, is beginning to recover itself (virtually), whether it be through apps like Hallow, among “friends” and “followers” on Facebook/Instagram/X, or even through connecting with particular Catholic influencers like Matt Frad & Candace Owens on Locals.

2. There is a nationwide trend towards “Catholic tradition,” whether it’s the Latin liturgy, the rosary, devotions to saints, Eucharistic adoration, or traditional moral teaching.

3. Catholic evangelization apostolates, such as the Fellowship of Catholic University Students, the Augustine Institute, the Eucharistic Congress, or Sent Evangelization are also noticeably growing.

In other words, the Catholic Church in America is quickly regaining those three critical components that led to its success in the 50s and 60s: Community, Catholic Identity, and Committed Evangelists.

Manifest Destiny

Almost 30 years ago, St. John Paul II prophesied that the New Evangelization would come out of Denver, and it seems that we may, in fact, be beginning to see the fufillment of that prophecy.

With the resurgence of community, Catholic identity, and committed evangelists in the United States, it is not impossible that we will someday see the growth American which France and Belgium are experiencing right now.

Let us pray, fast, and give ourselves generously, so that this New Evangelization set in motion 30 years ago by St. John Paul II may come to fruition in the years to come.